9/6 College Football:
North Carolina St. @ Wake Forest 12:00 PM EST
Wake Forest +7.5 over NC State (4 Units)
One of the first upsets of this young college football season may be upon us when the Wake Forest Demon Deacons host the 14th-ranked N.C. State Wolfpack in an ACC matchup that will help dictate whether or not these two squads can improve upon last season's successful campaigns... while the Wolfpack had a easy time in their opening contest against Western Carolina, the Deacs had to overcome a 21-12 fourth-quarter deficit to upend Boston College 32-28... however, Wake's impressive comeback and straight up victory as 11-point underdogs has once again proven the Deacs to be most dangerous when installed as an underdog...
The Demon Deacons are now a very impressive 13-5-3 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog, and have actually won seven of their last eleven games heading back to last season, with two losses coming by just one score (including a game against Clemson where they fumbled at the one yard line while heading in for a potentially tying score), and another loss coming by 13 points after a late cheap touchdown by the Florida State Seminoles made the final score seem much more lopsided than it should have been... Jim Grobe has done a remarkable job as Wake's coach, turning them from conference doormat into a team that has won SU as hefty dogs against the likes of BC, Oregon, Georgia Tech and Purdue in the past year...
A big reason for Wake's sudden resurgence as a force in the ACC has been an offense that has scored 21+ points in ten of their last eleven games, and has averaged a whopping 29.1 ppg in their last 20 contests overall... as a home dog, the Deacons have gone a very solid 8-4-2 ATS in their last 14 games, including a 7-2-2 ATS mark as a dog of more than five points...
The home team in this series has been money in the bag the last several times these squads have met, covering each of the last four matchups between these two against the spread, with the only SU loss coming by Wake Forest in 2001 by three points... that loss marked the only time in the past five seasons that the home team has failed to emerge victorious... a big problem for the road team in this series is that they have failed to score more than 17 points in any of the last four games between these two, with N.C. State scoring a combined 24 points in their last two trips to Wake, where the Deacons have gone 2-0 ATS since 1998... with more than a touchdown's worth of points on the side of a WFU squad that has the capability of running roughshod on anyone, we see little reason not to support the home team here, as we believe the Deacs will not only get the cover, but the outright win as well..
FINAL PREDICTION: WAKE FOREST 24, N.C. STATE 19
Colorado State @ California 6:00 PM EST
Colorado State +2.5 over California (4 Units)
Here is a contest where the line tells us just about all we need to see from these teams... in all sports, there are certain teams that just seem to thrive as underdogs, yet fall flat on their faces when expected to cover the spread... such seems to be the case with both the Colorado State Rams and the California Golden Bears... you see, while California has been superb when getting points from the opposition, more often than not they have failed to live up to expectations as a favorite, going just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games, including a 3-7 ATS mark as a home fav against non-conference opposition... the pressures of a close game also seem to make the Bears tighten up, as they are now 0-5 both SU and ATS in their last five games where the line was set at a field goal or less either way...
Colorado State, on the other hand, seems to thrive in close contests, going a whopping 14-4-1 ATS when the line is set at three points or less, and racking up an 11-3 straight up mark in games decided by one possession (eight points or less)... in tandem with their success in close games (or games expected to be close), CSU has been terrific in the role of underdog going 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as such... as a dog of less than a touchdown, that already exceptional mark improves to 12-2 ATS, including a 9-2 ATS record as a road dog of less than seven... against Top 25 teams, CSU is 12-12 straight up when facing Top 25 teams...
Despite a strong showing against Kansas State and a lopsided result against Southern Miss, the California defense is still allowing over 400 yards per game thus far this season, as well as an average of 26.8 yards per kick return, revealing the Bears to be ripe for the taking against a strong offensive squad... and considering the way that Bradlee Van Pelt and the Rams came storming back against Colorado to nearly pull out the victory last week, we're expecting the offense to continue clicking against the overrated Bears... Personnel may change quite a bit in college football, but team personality takes a much longer time to change... the end result is that we expect to see the same old same old, with California choking under the big-game pressure and Colorado State coming up big in yet another terrific underdog performance...
FINAL PREDICTION: COLORADO STATE 35, CALIFORNIA 27
Marshall @ Tennessee 4:00 PM EST
Tennessee -19.5 over Marshall (3.5 Units)
The Thundering Herd have been the class of the MAC for longer than we can remember, but Marshall has been less thunder and more thud when venturing outside their conference to take on quality opponents... last season, Marshall got embarassed at Virginia Tech, losing by a 47-21 margin as 11.5-point underdogs... in 2001, the Florida Gators took Marshall to task in a 49-14 victory that covered a massive 31 point spread... the previous year, Marshall failed to cover the spread at Michigan State with another double-digit loss, as well as also falling to a mediocre North Carolina squad both SU and ATS in the same season...
All in all, Marshall has now dropped five consecutive non-conference games ATS, and have gone a horrific 0-6 both SU and ATS as a road dog... add in the fact that Marshall is a much weaker squad than last season's outfit (with the graduation of Byron Leftwich), and things don't look too hot for new quarterback Stan Hill and the Herd... Hill has yet to face a I-A program, and in his debut last week against I-AA Hofstra, Hill turned the ball over a whopping FIVE times, meaning that it certainly appears that the pressure could get to Hill in this contest very easily...
That is especially the case when you look at the Volunteers defense, which is coming off a dominating performance of Fresno State, allowing just FOUR first downs during the entire contest and a total of just 117 yards of offense... if not for a late backdoor touchdown on an interception return, Tennessee would have pitched a shutout against Fresno and grabbed the cover... with a second consecutive home game on their side, Tennessee should be able to make amends for their blown cover last week, as the Volunteers are a superb 15-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games... Marshall may once again be the strength of the MAC, but the end result of this contest looks to be little more than another non-conference humiliation, as Stan Hill gets his orientation to primetime college football the hard way...
FINAL PREDICTION: TENNESSEE 44, MARSHALL 17
Indiana @ Washington 4:00 PM EST
Washington -25 over Indiana (3 Units)
The Indiana Hoosiers are in some serious trouble in this contest against the high octane Washington passing attack, as both starting safeties are out for this contest for Indiana... considering that Washington's passing attack is a top-five unit in I-A competition, that alone is horrendous news... however, the fact that the Huskies were embarassed last week against Ohio State (losing 28-9) makes Indiana's job even more difficult, as the Huskies are now 5-2 ATS following a double-digit loss, and are off next week, meaning that an all-out assault looks to be in the cards against an Indiana defense that allowed over 500 yards last week in a 34-10 slaughtering at the hands of Connecticut... Connecticut was able to pick up a whopping 27 first downs in that contest, and scored on all four trips they made into the Red Zone, meaning that Washington's much more potent attack could have an absolute field day in this one...
Washington has been exceptional in home openers over the years, going 16-1 straight up in their last 17 contests, including a 7-3 ATS mark over the past ten seasons.... and considering that Indiana is a horrendous 2-19-1 ATS when losing straight up, the pointspread in this one holds little meaning to us... in other words, when Indiana loses, they tend to lose big and hardly even put up a fight - a trait that does not mesh well with Washington's desire to prove to the pollsters that they are still an elite team...
The Hoosiers have now lost seven straight contests heading back to last season both SU and ATS, allowing at least 34 points in each of their last six contests... and with just eight seniors on their roster, this is a team short on both talent AND experience... and considering that Indiana had three drives last week that gained NEGATIVE yardage (and eight that gained less than ten yards), we have a difficult time seeing Indiana having any chance of keeping up with the Huskies in this one... look for Washington to open up a huge halftime lead and cruise to the finish line in a game they win by at least thirty...
FINAL PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 42, INDIANA 10
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Tulsa @ Arkansas 7:00 PM EST
Tulsa +37.5 over Arkansas (3 Units)
Kent State @ Pittsburgh 7:00 PM EST
Kent State +29 over Pittsburgh (2.5 Units)
Florida @ Miami-FL 8:00 PM EST
Miami -14 over Florida (2.5 Units)
Mississippi @ Memphis 12:00 PM EST
Memphis +8 over Mississippi (2 Units)
Air Force @ Northwestern 1:00 PM EST
Air Force -7.5 over Northwestern (2 Units)
Auburn @ Georgia Tech 3:30 PM EST
Georgia Tech +8.5 over Auburn (1.5 Units)
Georgia Tech/Auburn Under 40.5 (2 Units)
UCLA @ Colorado 3:30 PM EST
UCLA +3 over Colorado (1.5 Units)
Boston College @ Penn State 12:00 PM EST
Boston College +9 over Penn State (1 Unit)
North Carolina St. @ Wake Forest 12:00 PM EST
Wake Forest +7.5 over NC State (4 Units)
One of the first upsets of this young college football season may be upon us when the Wake Forest Demon Deacons host the 14th-ranked N.C. State Wolfpack in an ACC matchup that will help dictate whether or not these two squads can improve upon last season's successful campaigns... while the Wolfpack had a easy time in their opening contest against Western Carolina, the Deacs had to overcome a 21-12 fourth-quarter deficit to upend Boston College 32-28... however, Wake's impressive comeback and straight up victory as 11-point underdogs has once again proven the Deacs to be most dangerous when installed as an underdog...
The Demon Deacons are now a very impressive 13-5-3 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog, and have actually won seven of their last eleven games heading back to last season, with two losses coming by just one score (including a game against Clemson where they fumbled at the one yard line while heading in for a potentially tying score), and another loss coming by 13 points after a late cheap touchdown by the Florida State Seminoles made the final score seem much more lopsided than it should have been... Jim Grobe has done a remarkable job as Wake's coach, turning them from conference doormat into a team that has won SU as hefty dogs against the likes of BC, Oregon, Georgia Tech and Purdue in the past year...
A big reason for Wake's sudden resurgence as a force in the ACC has been an offense that has scored 21+ points in ten of their last eleven games, and has averaged a whopping 29.1 ppg in their last 20 contests overall... as a home dog, the Deacons have gone a very solid 8-4-2 ATS in their last 14 games, including a 7-2-2 ATS mark as a dog of more than five points...
The home team in this series has been money in the bag the last several times these squads have met, covering each of the last four matchups between these two against the spread, with the only SU loss coming by Wake Forest in 2001 by three points... that loss marked the only time in the past five seasons that the home team has failed to emerge victorious... a big problem for the road team in this series is that they have failed to score more than 17 points in any of the last four games between these two, with N.C. State scoring a combined 24 points in their last two trips to Wake, where the Deacons have gone 2-0 ATS since 1998... with more than a touchdown's worth of points on the side of a WFU squad that has the capability of running roughshod on anyone, we see little reason not to support the home team here, as we believe the Deacs will not only get the cover, but the outright win as well..
FINAL PREDICTION: WAKE FOREST 24, N.C. STATE 19
Colorado State @ California 6:00 PM EST
Colorado State +2.5 over California (4 Units)
Here is a contest where the line tells us just about all we need to see from these teams... in all sports, there are certain teams that just seem to thrive as underdogs, yet fall flat on their faces when expected to cover the spread... such seems to be the case with both the Colorado State Rams and the California Golden Bears... you see, while California has been superb when getting points from the opposition, more often than not they have failed to live up to expectations as a favorite, going just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games, including a 3-7 ATS mark as a home fav against non-conference opposition... the pressures of a close game also seem to make the Bears tighten up, as they are now 0-5 both SU and ATS in their last five games where the line was set at a field goal or less either way...
Colorado State, on the other hand, seems to thrive in close contests, going a whopping 14-4-1 ATS when the line is set at three points or less, and racking up an 11-3 straight up mark in games decided by one possession (eight points or less)... in tandem with their success in close games (or games expected to be close), CSU has been terrific in the role of underdog going 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as such... as a dog of less than a touchdown, that already exceptional mark improves to 12-2 ATS, including a 9-2 ATS record as a road dog of less than seven... against Top 25 teams, CSU is 12-12 straight up when facing Top 25 teams...
Despite a strong showing against Kansas State and a lopsided result against Southern Miss, the California defense is still allowing over 400 yards per game thus far this season, as well as an average of 26.8 yards per kick return, revealing the Bears to be ripe for the taking against a strong offensive squad... and considering the way that Bradlee Van Pelt and the Rams came storming back against Colorado to nearly pull out the victory last week, we're expecting the offense to continue clicking against the overrated Bears... Personnel may change quite a bit in college football, but team personality takes a much longer time to change... the end result is that we expect to see the same old same old, with California choking under the big-game pressure and Colorado State coming up big in yet another terrific underdog performance...
FINAL PREDICTION: COLORADO STATE 35, CALIFORNIA 27
Marshall @ Tennessee 4:00 PM EST
Tennessee -19.5 over Marshall (3.5 Units)
The Thundering Herd have been the class of the MAC for longer than we can remember, but Marshall has been less thunder and more thud when venturing outside their conference to take on quality opponents... last season, Marshall got embarassed at Virginia Tech, losing by a 47-21 margin as 11.5-point underdogs... in 2001, the Florida Gators took Marshall to task in a 49-14 victory that covered a massive 31 point spread... the previous year, Marshall failed to cover the spread at Michigan State with another double-digit loss, as well as also falling to a mediocre North Carolina squad both SU and ATS in the same season...
All in all, Marshall has now dropped five consecutive non-conference games ATS, and have gone a horrific 0-6 both SU and ATS as a road dog... add in the fact that Marshall is a much weaker squad than last season's outfit (with the graduation of Byron Leftwich), and things don't look too hot for new quarterback Stan Hill and the Herd... Hill has yet to face a I-A program, and in his debut last week against I-AA Hofstra, Hill turned the ball over a whopping FIVE times, meaning that it certainly appears that the pressure could get to Hill in this contest very easily...
That is especially the case when you look at the Volunteers defense, which is coming off a dominating performance of Fresno State, allowing just FOUR first downs during the entire contest and a total of just 117 yards of offense... if not for a late backdoor touchdown on an interception return, Tennessee would have pitched a shutout against Fresno and grabbed the cover... with a second consecutive home game on their side, Tennessee should be able to make amends for their blown cover last week, as the Volunteers are a superb 15-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games... Marshall may once again be the strength of the MAC, but the end result of this contest looks to be little more than another non-conference humiliation, as Stan Hill gets his orientation to primetime college football the hard way...
FINAL PREDICTION: TENNESSEE 44, MARSHALL 17
Indiana @ Washington 4:00 PM EST
Washington -25 over Indiana (3 Units)
The Indiana Hoosiers are in some serious trouble in this contest against the high octane Washington passing attack, as both starting safeties are out for this contest for Indiana... considering that Washington's passing attack is a top-five unit in I-A competition, that alone is horrendous news... however, the fact that the Huskies were embarassed last week against Ohio State (losing 28-9) makes Indiana's job even more difficult, as the Huskies are now 5-2 ATS following a double-digit loss, and are off next week, meaning that an all-out assault looks to be in the cards against an Indiana defense that allowed over 500 yards last week in a 34-10 slaughtering at the hands of Connecticut... Connecticut was able to pick up a whopping 27 first downs in that contest, and scored on all four trips they made into the Red Zone, meaning that Washington's much more potent attack could have an absolute field day in this one...
Washington has been exceptional in home openers over the years, going 16-1 straight up in their last 17 contests, including a 7-3 ATS mark over the past ten seasons.... and considering that Indiana is a horrendous 2-19-1 ATS when losing straight up, the pointspread in this one holds little meaning to us... in other words, when Indiana loses, they tend to lose big and hardly even put up a fight - a trait that does not mesh well with Washington's desire to prove to the pollsters that they are still an elite team...
The Hoosiers have now lost seven straight contests heading back to last season both SU and ATS, allowing at least 34 points in each of their last six contests... and with just eight seniors on their roster, this is a team short on both talent AND experience... and considering that Indiana had three drives last week that gained NEGATIVE yardage (and eight that gained less than ten yards), we have a difficult time seeing Indiana having any chance of keeping up with the Huskies in this one... look for Washington to open up a huge halftime lead and cruise to the finish line in a game they win by at least thirty...
FINAL PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 42, INDIANA 10
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Tulsa @ Arkansas 7:00 PM EST
Tulsa +37.5 over Arkansas (3 Units)
Kent State @ Pittsburgh 7:00 PM EST
Kent State +29 over Pittsburgh (2.5 Units)
Florida @ Miami-FL 8:00 PM EST
Miami -14 over Florida (2.5 Units)
Mississippi @ Memphis 12:00 PM EST
Memphis +8 over Mississippi (2 Units)
Air Force @ Northwestern 1:00 PM EST
Air Force -7.5 over Northwestern (2 Units)
Auburn @ Georgia Tech 3:30 PM EST
Georgia Tech +8.5 over Auburn (1.5 Units)
Georgia Tech/Auburn Under 40.5 (2 Units)
UCLA @ Colorado 3:30 PM EST
UCLA +3 over Colorado (1.5 Units)
Boston College @ Penn State 12:00 PM EST
Boston College +9 over Penn State (1 Unit)
